Carmignac

Carmignac P. Flexible Bond: Letter from the Fund Managers

  • -0.51%
    Carmignac P. Flexible Bond’s performance

    in the 3rd quarter of 2022 for the A EUR Share class

  • -4.70%
    Reference indicator’s performance

    in the 3rd quarter of 2022 for ICE BofA ML Euro Broad index (EUR)

  • +3.57%
    Outperformance of the Fund

    Year to date versus its reference indicator

Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond lost –0.51% (A EUR Acc) in the third quarter of 2022, substantially outperforming its reference indicator1, which fell by –4.70%.

The Bond Market Today

The economic consequences of Russia’s unjustified invasion of Ukraine have been seen primarily in an energy crisis, against the backdrop of interrupted natural gas supplies from the Nord Stream pipeline. Germany’s manufacturing sector was built partly on the back of cheap energy from Russia, so the reduction and subsequent halt of gas deliveries has undermined a pillar of Europe’s economy. However, European countries seem determined to defend their democratic values, even if that means suffering a recession this winter and watching inflation soar to levels never seen before in the history of the single currency.

The latest readings indicate that eurozone headline inflation has reached the double digits and that core inflation came in at 6% – higher than the peaks recorded in the US in Q2 2022. Meanwhile, CEO and consumer confidence has plummeted in the currency bloc amid concerns that natural gas inventories will run out this winter and that skyrocketing energy bills will push many firms into bankruptcy unless policymakers take robust action. The combination of high inflation and recessionary fears has pushed the euro down even lower against the US dollar, causing it to fall below parity, an important psychological level.

The European Central Bank has therefore had no choice but to raise its key interest rate sharply, lifting it by a total of 125 bp in the two meetings held in Q3. That puts the ECB among the vast majority of central banks that are tightening monetary and financial conditions at a record pace in order to stem the rising tide of inflation. As we’ve seen in the US, today’s inflationary pressure is stubborn in nature and affecting all segments of the economy.

The Bank of England even went so far as to announce its first-ever programme to sell UK government bonds. This was followed by the Truss government’s unveiling of an unconventional mini-budget designed to boost economic growth. But in response to the prospect of liquidity withdrawals by the central bank and a widening fiscal deficit, investors turned their back on gilts to an unprecedented scale, forcing the BoE to re-introduce its bond-buying programme in order to calm the financial-market storm. In this climate ripe with uncertainty about both economic growth and inflation, corporate bonds – and especially those in the high-yield segment – outperformed sovereign ones considerably. We believe that the attractive prices we’re now seeing in the corporate-bond market already factor in high default rates in this cycle and that investors have been reassured by central banks’ swift action to nip anything looking like a liquidity crunch in the bud.

Portfolio Allocation

We adjusted our asset allocation in Q3 in response to the changing market climate.

  • We substantially reduced the portfolio’s modified duration. We decided to focus our short positions on German and Italian rates, given that real interest rates in these countries are still negative and the ECB has no choice but to keep tightening monetary policy; it could even follow in the Fed’s and BoE’s footsteps and start shrinking its balance sheet. We also added a short position on Japanese rates, since inflation in the country – already record-breaking – should keep climbing, amid tensions between the Japanese government and central bank.
  • We continued to increase our credit-market exposure. Prices are even more attractive now that credit spreads have stabilised at high levels. We therefore reinforced our positions on the strongest convictions in our portfolio: European financial debt, high-yield corporate bonds, collateralised loan obligations, and EM debt. Because we believe the credit market will remain volatile, we decided to keep a substantial level of protection (around 12%, consisting of CDSs).

Outlook

Rate-hike expectations now seem high enough to trigger a sharp slowdown in economic output and, in the medium term, tame inflation. But we still believe that the growing fiscal deficits, especially in continental Europe and the UK, will maintain a certain amount of upwards pressure on long-term yields. Our portfolio remains centred on our three main themes, which offer attractive valuations and solid fundamentals even in this turbulent climate: corporate bonds issued by companies linked to commodities and energy prices; subordinated financial debt; and EM debt. Around 17% of our portfolio consists of cash and money-market instruments and we have credit protection (CDSs) in place, enabling us to deploy our capital should the market dislocations get worse, creating new opportunities in the process.

Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond

A flexible solution aiming to capture bond opportunities globally

Discover the fund page

Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond A EUR Acc

ISIN: LU0336084032

Horizonte de investimento mínimo recomendado

Risco mais baixo Risco mais elevado

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Principais riscos do fundo

AÇÕES: O Fundo pode ser afetado por variações nos preços das ações, numa escala que depende de fatores externos, volumes de negociação de ações ou capitalização bolsista.

TAXA DE JURO: O risco de taxa de juro resulta na diminuição do valor patrimonial líquido no caso de variações nas taxas de juro.

CRÉDITO: O risco de crédito consiste no risco de incumprimento do emitente.

CAMBIAL: O risco cambial está associado à exposição a uma moeda que não seja a moeda de avaliação do Fundo, através de investimento direto ou do recurso a instrumentos financeiros a prazo.

Este fundo não possui capital garantido.

* Escala de Risco do KID (documentos de informação fundamental). O risco 1 não significa um investimento isento de risco. Este indicador pode variar ao longo do tempo.

Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond A EUR Acc

ISIN: LU0336084032
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (YTD)
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Desde o início do ano até à data
Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond A EUR Acc +1.98 % -0.71 % +0.07 % +1.65 % -3.40 % +4.99 % +9.24 % +0.01 % -8.02 % +4.67 % +0.71 %
Indicador de Referência +0.10 % -0.11 % -0.32 % -0.36 % -0.37 % -2.45 % +3.99 % -2.80 % -16.93 % +6.82 % -0.35 %

Deslocar para a direita para ver a tabela completa

3 anos 5 anos 10 anos
Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond A EUR Acc -0.92 % +2.10 % +1.01 %
Indicador de Referência -4.77 % -2.70 % -1.47 %

Deslocar para a direita para ver a tabela completa

O desempenho passado não é necessariamente um indicador do desempenho futuro. Os desempenhos são líquidos de comissões (excluindo eventuais comissões de subscrição cobradas pelo distribuidor).

Fonte: Carmignac em 31/01/2024

Custos de entrada : 1,00% do montante que paga ao entrar neste investimento. Este é o valor máximo que lhe será cobrado. Carmignac Gestion não cobra custos de entrada. A pessoa que lhe vender o produto irá informá-lo do custo efetivo.
Custos de saída : Não cobramos uma comissão de saída para este produto.
Comissões de gestão e outros custos administrativos ou operacionais : 1,20% O impacto dos custos que suportamos anualmente pela gestão dos seus investimentos e outras comissões administrativas. Esta é uma estimativa baseada nos custos efetivos ao longo do último ano. 
Comissões de desempenho : 20,00% quando a classe de ações supera o indicador de referência durante o período de desempenho. Será pago também no caso de a classe de ações ter superado o indicador de referência, mas teve um desempenho negativo. O baixo desempenho é recuperado por 5 anos. O valor real varia dependendo do desempenho do seu investimento. A estimativa de custo agregado acima inclui a média dos últimos 5 anos, ou desde a criação do produto se for inferior a 5 anos.
Custos de transação : 0,38% O impacto dos custos inerentes às nossas operações de compra e de venda de investimentos subjacentes ao produto.